Posted by on January 12, 2018

[Drum roll] For 2017… The most profitable UFC fighters to bet on… were…Image result for king crown1. Volkan Oezdemir 8.65x

2. Darren Elkins – 7.00x

3. Rose Namajunas – 6.10x

4. Felice Herrig – 5.42x

5. Kajan Johnson – 4.50x

6. Yancy Medeiros – 3.91x

7. Mark Godbeer – 3.79x

8. David Teymur – 3.77x

9. John Moraga – 3.73x

10. Clay Guida3.70x

 

How was their profitability calculated?

The calculations for the multipliers above use the average wager amount of a specific UFC fighter’s every fight in 2017. Let’s say I place $500 on fight A, $300 on fight B, and a $100 on fight C. Let’s say again that all of these wagers involved an Oezdemir fight. I would add all those up and divide by 3, which would equal $300. That means I profited $300 x 8.65 . The only bets used in these calculations were straight wagers. Considering the odds are always changing, and each Sportsbook uses different odds, I used closing odds from 5Dimes to calculate each fighters profitability. Below are the summarized tenets of my calculations and an example of how they were calculated:

 

1. Only straight wagers considered

2. Only 5Dimes closing odds were considered

3. Only 2017 data was considered

 

 

Profitability = (335+375+155) ÷ 100 = 8.65 = you would get 8.65x your average wager amount between Oezdemir’s three fights. If I averaged a $100 wager, I would have profited $865.

 

“Volkan Oezdemir was the most profitable UFC fighter to bet on in 2017”

 

 

Why is it important to know?

You can use this knowledge as a sample size to project a fighter’s future profitability, in regards to betting. For example, Dustin Ortiz garnered a negative return of -.43x in 2017, and if he were to become a -160 favorite in his next bout, is it worth paying the juice with his negative track record? Personally, I would prefer not to risk money on an entity that has been operating in the red, especially when there will be investments (UFC fighters to bet on) that have a profitable track record and less juice. Each matchup is different, and there are many variables that go into odds making, but why not have a preference towards fighters that have a profitable track record vs an unprofitable one?

 

Conclusion

Best of luck to all my UFC bettors out there! If you would like to see more UFC betting statistics, follow me on Twitter here MMA Parlay

 

Posted in: Betting Statistics

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