Posted by on January 12, 2018

Who was the most profitable UFC fighter to have bet on, if you had bet on all of their fights in 2017? This blog article is written to answer that question.

It is important to know this in order to reverse engineer how they were able to obtain their profitable success. Considering that their accomplishments might have been a fluke, it’s best to get a sample size larger than one fighter. Therefore, below is a list of the top 10 most profitable UFC fighters to have bet on in 2017. The list will start from ten and will descend in order until number one is revealed.

Before this list gets announced, it is important to mention how the profitability of each UFC fighter was calculated. The multiplier next to each fighter’s name is how much of a return a bettor would have gotten on their average wager amount for all of that fighter’s matchups in 2017. For example, if a bettor wagered $100 on each of Clay Guida’s fights in 2017, they would have received $370 (3.7x multiplier) in profit. If it were $1,000, that lucky individual would have garnered $3,700.

Below are the guidelines for the profitability calculations:

1. Only straight wagers considered

2. Only 5Dimes closing odds were considered

3. Only 2017 data was considered

As a way to say thanks for reading this content, I included a graphic listing the top 10 worst UFC fighters to have bet on in 2017. This can be found at the end of the article. Hopefully, these fighters didn’t cause too much economic damage to the funds in your betting account. If you don’t have a betting account, I highly recommend, and personally use, 5Dimes.

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Now, let’s dig in to the meat and potatoes of this article.

10. Clay Guida

Who did Clay Guida fight in 2017 and how profitable was he?

Clay Guida opened up 2017 with a big win over Erik Koch. He closed as a +290 underdog in that fight. Later on in the year, Guida defeated Joe Lauzon after closing as a slight favorite (-125).

Average wager amount = $100.00

$100.00/1.25 = +$80.00

$100.00*2.90 = +$290.00

Profit = $290.00 + $80.00 = $370.00

Multiplier = $370.00/$100.00 = 3.70x

What fighting characteristics made Clay Guida so profitable to bet on in 2017?

Cardio – this aspect must be favored in all UFC betting endeavors. Clay Guida has yet to show any signs of being fatigued while competing in the UFC octagon.

Wrestling – Guida is number 5 on the all time list of most takedowns landed in UFC history (as of 2/9/2019). He currently has 63 recorded takedowns, according to Fightmetric.

9. John Moraga

Who did John Moraga fight in 2017 and how profitable was he?

Moraga faced a stiff test to begin the year when he fought a surging prospect known as Sergio Pettis. He rebounded five months later when he defeated Mokhtarian as a -210 favorite. After finally snapping a three fight losing streak, he kept that momentum going into his showdown against Bibulatov. Moraga closed as a +425 underdog. He quickly reminded bettors that a former title challenger should never be that big of an underdog against a fighter making his second octagon appearance.

Average wager amount = $100.00

Loss -$100.00

$100.00/2.10 = +$47.62

$100.00*4.25 = +$425.00

Profit = -$100.00 + $47.62 + $425.00 = $372.62

Multiplier = $372.62/$100.00 = 3.73x

What fighting characteristics made John Moraga so profitable to bet on in 2017?

Chin – according to the MMA Stats section on Betmma.tips, in the past 157 bouts in the male flyweight division, 33 of them were knockouts (33/157 = 21.0%). Moraga has only been knocked out in 2 of his 14 UFC matchups (2/14 = 14.3%), so he is well below the average KO/TKO loss rate for his division. It’s worth noting that he didn’t suffer any knockout losses in 2017.

8. David Teymur

Who did David Teymur fight in 2017 and how profitable was he?

David Teymur overcame the odds when he defeated Lando Vannata in March of 2017. He won by unanimous decision as a +300 underdog. He returned eight months later versus Drakkar Klose and won a lackluster decision that really confused fans whether it was an MMA fight or a staring contest. David Teymur won as a -130 favorite in that contest.

Average wager amount = $100.00

$100.00*3.00 = +$300.00

$100.00/1.30 = +$76.92

Profit = $300.00 + $76.92 = $376.92

Multiplier = $376.92/$100.00 = 3.77x

What fighting characteristics made David Teymur so profitable to bet on in 2017?

A perfect detailed account of David Teymur’s successful MMA attributes can be found here. I’ll use an excerpt from that article to reiterate some key fighting characteristics utilized in Teymur’s skill set.

“When assessing the combative profile of David Teymur, his power-kicking game and timely counters stand out immediately. What makes Teymur special, however, is his flair for theatrics and ability to work a crowd. Observe the extra “oomph” on his sweeps, the tap on his chin, that cheeky wink for the fans. David Teymur was born to dazzle an audience.”

7. Mark Godbeer

Who did Mark Godbeer fight in 2017 and how profitable was he?

Mark Godbeer had a fortuitous 2017. For his first assignment he drew a UFC debutant (Daniel Spitz) coming in on only nine days of short notice. That short notice ended up playing a big factor in the outcome of the match. As a rule of thumb, a bettor should devalue the cardio of a heavyweight coming in on short notice when handicapping a fight. Due to the lack of time to prepare, Spitz was completely gassed midway through the second round. After Godbeer won that fight as a -145 favorite, he was set to square off against Walt Harris. Godbeer caught a huge break in that fight. He was getting dominated until Walt Harris landed a series of illegal blows. First was the groin strike and then a head kick, after the referee called for a halt in the action. These transgressions resulted in a disqualification loss for Harris, and a win for Godbeer. Goodbeer won as a +310 underdog.

Average wager amount = $100.00

$100.00/1.45 = +$68.97

$100.00*3.10 = +$310.00

Profit = $68.97 + $310.00 = $378.97Multiplier = $378.97/$100.00 = 3.79x

6. Yancy Medeiros

Who did Yancy Medeiros fight in 2017 and how profitable was he?

Yancy didn’t get scheduled for a fight until June, but he made sure to start his Summer on a high note. He fought a post-USADA Erik Silva. He knocked out Silva in the second round. Although that was impressive, what got him on this list was the fact that he defeated Alex Oliveira as a +320 underdog. If you haven’t seen that fight, I highly recommend every MMA fan to go watch it.

Average wager amount = $100.00

$100.00/1.40 = +$71.43

$100.00*3.20 = +$320.00

Profit = $71.43 + $320.00 = $391.43Multiplier = $391.43/$100.00 = 3.91x

What fighting characteristics made Yancy Medeiros so profitable to bet on in 2017?

Ability to weather a storm – Yancy Medeiros was able to survive an early onslaught from Oliveira. After getting knocked down twice and wobbled for seemingly half the first round, Yancy overcame that adversity and challenged Oliveira to a will power contest.

Oliveira had his own adversity to overcome. His nose was broken after the first round. When it came to the third round, which is the quintessential “who wants it more” round, either Oliveira’s cardio threshold or his pain threshold got surpassed. This manifested into Oliveira backing up to the fence in a defensive/wounded posture. Oliveira quickly got into a defensive shell and allowed Yancy to freely strike uncontested. After a few thunderous shots, Oliveira fell over and they referee swiftly intervened.

5. Kajan Johnson

Who did Kajan Johnson fight in 2017 and how profitable was he?

It only took one fight for Kajan Johnson to propel himself on to this list. He only fought and defeated Adriano Martins in 2017. Johnson closed as a +450 underdog in that one. He landed a beautiful palm strike to the temple, which knocked out Martins cold.

Average wager amount = $100.00

$100.00*4.50 = +$450.00

Profit = $450.00

Multiplier = $450.00/$100.00 = 4.50x

What fighting characteristics made Kajan Johnson so profitable to bet on in 2017?

Movement and footwork – Kajan Johnson was one of the best at using his movement and footwork to avoid any physical threat. It’s difficult to cut-off the octagon and corner him. He finds a way to slip away from danger. This was a main component in his victory over Martins. He frustrated the brawler with his lack of engagement.

4. Felice Herrig

Who did Felice Herrig fight in 2017 and how profitable was she?

Felice Herrig had a remarkable turnaround after losing her debut against VanZant. After that loss, she rattled off four consecutive wins. In 2017, Herrig beat Grasso as a +315 underdog. After getting disrespected by the oddsmakers once again, she defeated Justine Kish at +140 odds. Not only did she get the decision victory, but she also caused Kish to shit herself. The momentum didn’t slow down after those two successive victories. Herrig capped off the year with a third consecutive win. This time she finally closed as a slight favorite against Cortney Casey (-115). All three of her 2017 wins came via decision.

Average wager amount = $100.00

$100.00*3.15= +$315.00

$100.00*1.40= +$140.00

$100.00/1.15= +$86.96

Profit = $315.00 + $140.00 + $86.96 = $541.96

Multiplier = $541.96 /$100.00 = 5.42x

What fighting characteristics made Felice Herrig so profitable to bet on in 2017?

Herrig’s successful 2017 is explained very well in this ESPN article.

Herrig battled health issues that resulted from malnutrition. According to that ESPN article, when Herrig got tested for various health factors “the results arrived a month later and revealed a human body operating at about 25 percent to 30 percent of its capacity. With unbalanced levels of cortisol and DHEA hormones taxing her nervous system, and with parasites wreaking havoc on her digestive tract, Herrig was a physical and mental disaster.”

Herrig’s improvements came after employing the services of Dr. Callum Cowan of Phenom High Performance Medicine in Ontario. He made adjustments to her nutritional intake and supplementation.

3. Rose Namajunas

Who did Rose Namajunas fight in 2017 and how profitable was she?

Rose Namajunas had a 2017 to remember. She won both of her fights, captured the UFC strawweight championship belt, got the first knockout victory in her career, and was awarded the MMA Fighter of the Year by ESPN.

If any bettors had the foresight to predict this monumental year from her, they collected a tremendous ROI. First, Namajunas submitted Waterson in dominating fashion even though her odds closed at +110. What really shocked the world, and catapulted her to the top of this list, was her stunning knockout win over the long reigning champion Jędrzejczyk. Namajunas was a +500 in that contest. That’s a number that signifies that she only had a 16.7% chance of winning that fight. She overcame those odds like a dramatic movie script.

What fighting characteristics made Rose Namajunas so profitable to bet on in 2017?

Posted in: Betting Statistics

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